10222021

Why Aston Villa & Brighton might be concerned by the Bundesliga results pattern


Is home advantage dead in the Bundesliga?

Following Tuesday night’s action in the Bundesliga, which included Bayern’s 1-0 win at Borussia Dortmund, many are continuing to conclude that home advantage is now dead in football’s new normal.

There have now been 22 games in the Bundesliga since football resumed.

Of those matches, there have only been 3 home wins (14%).

The only teams to register home wins are Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Hertha Berlin.

Meanwhile, there have been 6 draws (27%) and a staggering 13 away wins (59%).

 

Why Aston Villa & Brighton should be concerned

The likes of Sky Sports have attempted to forecast how the trend of results in the Bundesliga could impact teams in the Premier League when football restarts.

According to Sky Sports, there’s been a “30 per cent slump for success on home soil since the league restarted” in Germany.

If that trend continues in the Premier League, then the teams with more home matches to play in their season would be at a disadvantage.

That could spell terrible news for Aston Villa, who are second-bottom of the league, as they have a league-high 6 home games remaining. Those games are against Sheffield United, Chelsea, Wolves, Manchester United, Crystal Palace and Arsenal.

Brighton, who are two points clear of the relegation zone, could also be in trouble.

Brighton have 5 home games remaining, as they need to host Man City, Man United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Newcastle.

 

How many points have each Premier League side collected home vs away

How many points have each Premier League side collected home vs away

How many points have each Premier League side collected home vs away

Credit to Sky Sports for this image.

Remaining home vs away fixtures for each Premier League club

Remaining home vs away fixtures for each Premier League club

Remaining home vs away fixtures for each Premier League club

Credit to Sky Sports for this image.

How many away wins have there been in the Bundesliga 2 & Czech Liga 1?

Some may raise eyebrows at trying to predict how Premier League games will play out by looking at what’s been happening in the Bundesliga.

That’s because the results from other leagues playing behind closed doors fail to back up the ‘home advantage is dead’ theory.

The German second tier, Bundesliga 2, is also currently being played behind closed doors.

There have been 20 games in the Bundesliga 2, breaking down as follows: 8 home wins (40%), 8 draws (40%) and only 4 away wins (20%).

While, in the opening five matches of the Czech Liga 1 season (admittedly, a small sample size), there have been 2 home wins, 2 draws and 1 away win.

 


Premier League table as it stands:

# Team MP W D L F A D P
1 Liverpool FC 29 27 1 1 66 21 45 82
2 Manchester City 28 18 3 7 68 31 37 57
3 Leicester City 29 16 5 8 58 28 30 53
4 Chelsea FC 29 14 6 9 51 39 12 48
5 Manchester United 29 12 9 8 44 30 14 45
6 Wolverhampton Wanderers 29 10 13 6 41 34 7 43
7 Sheffield United 28 11 10 7 30 25 5 43
8 Tottenham Hotspur 29 11 8 10 47 40 7 41
9 Arsenal FC 28 9 13 6 40 36 4 40
10 Burnley FC 29 11 6 12 34 40 -6 39
11 Crystal Palace 29 10 9 10 26 32 -6 39
12 Everton FC 29 10 7 12 37 46 -9 37
13 Newcastle United 29 9 8 12 25 41 -16 35
14 Southampton FC 29 10 4 15 35 52 -17 34
15 Brighton & Hove Albion 29 6 11 12 32 40 -8 29
16 West Ham United 29 7 6 16 35 50 -15 27
17 Watford FC 29 6 9 14 27 44 -17 27
18 AFC Bournemouth 29 7 6 16 29 47 -18 27
19 Aston Villa 28 7 4 17 34 56 -22 25
20 Norwich City 29 5 6 18 25 52 -27 21

Last updated: 1 min ago


 

Also see: Best Netflix, Amazon & YouTube football documentaries & movies to watch during coronavirus isolation

9 best football documentaries to watch on ESPN+ during COVID-19 quarantine


This article was edited by Ben Green.



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