That lines up with what companies have been reporting. Many are watching for signs that consumers are pulling back. While they have seen shoppers become more discerning about their purchases, several big retailers said the picture remained optimistic this summer.

“Overarchingly, we believe that the consumer is in a good place,” Corie Barry, chief executive of Best Buy, said on an earnings call on Tuesday. “But as we have said, they are making careful choices and trade-offs right for their households.”

Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro, said the continued strength in the economic data would likely keep the Fed wary in the months ahead. At the same time, he found the details of the inflation report “encouraging.”

“The momentum in inflation seems to be downshifting somewhat,” he said.

While the year-over-year inflation rate — the 3.3 percent figure — moved slightly higher in July, analysts like Mr. Dutta closely watch month-to-month price increases. Those have been more contained in recent months.

The tick higher in annual P.C.E. inflation was widely expected. Various data points that feed into the number, including the Consumer Price Index inflation report, come out earlier in the month. The measure remains a point of focus on Wall Street and in policy circles despite its late release because it is the one that the Fed uses to define its official inflation goal.